The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

This chapter offers a systematic perspective on existential threats, outlining an organized strategy for recognizing and mitigating dangers that could obliterate human existence. It categorizes an array of perils, encompassing both natural phenomena and human-induced hazards, and Ord outlines a three-part framework for examining these threats: the inception, which concerns the genesis of a risk; amplification, the means by which it could attain a worldwide scope; and culmination, the phase where it might lead to the annihilation of humankind.

Tactics such as preemption, intervention, and fortitude are essential in diminishing risks, and resources should be strategically allocated to where they will be most effective in stopping the likelihood of a global catastrophe.

To enhance this schema, the chapter discusses the notions of existential risk enhancers and protective factors. Enhancers, such as global fiscal downturns or the disintegration of geopolitical harmony, escalate the exposure to existential menaces. In contrast, protective factors like stable international entities and global tranquility serve as safeguards for humanity. For this reason, risks should not be assessed solely on their projected consequences but also on their solvability and the extent to which they are overlooked. Measures should focus on existential threats that are presently under-resourced: This evaluation should consider the imminence of risks, prioritizing those that are immediate, as well as the character of risks, giving attention to those that are abrupt and without preceding smaller incidents.